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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 082349
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure located about 60 miles east-southeast of 
Wilmington, North Carolina, continues to produce a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the adjacent Atlantic 
waters and portions of eastern North Carolina.  The low is expected 
to move northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina 
Outer Banks on Thursday, and then turn north-northeastward and move 
along the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday. Environmental conditions 
are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or 
subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next day or so. 
Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce locally 
heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions 
of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern 
New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also possible 
along the North Carolina Outer Banks through Thursday, and along 
the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Friday and 
Saturday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of 
this system and refer to products from your local National Weather 
Service office. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 09 Jul 2020 00:01:14 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 082334
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Cristina, located a few hundred miles southwest of 
Manzanillo, Mexico.

A broad area of low pressure located about 900 miles southwest of 
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become much 
less organized since yesterday.  Development, if any, of this nearly 
stationary low will be slow to occur during the next two days before 
environmental conditions become unfavorable. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec late this week.  Environmental conditions are expected 
to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could 
form early next week while the system moves westward well south of 
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)

...CRISTINA CONTINUING AS A TROPICAL STORM WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST  OF MEXICO...
 As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Jul 8
 the center of Cristina was located near 16.0, -107.7
 with movement NW at 13 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 998 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 9

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 082044
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
300 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020
 
...CRISTINA CONTINUING AS A TROPICAL STORM WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST 
OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 107.7W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 107.7 West. Cristina is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn toward 
the west-northwest is expected by tomorrow morning, and that motion 
is should continue for the next few days.  On the forecast 
track, Cristina will remain well offshore the coast of Mexico.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and 
Cristina is expected to become a hurricane by late Thursday or 
early Friday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Landsea

Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 9

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 08 2020  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 082044
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052020
2100 UTC WED JUL 08 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.7W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.7W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 107.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.9N 113.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.8N 115.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.6N 118.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.1N 120.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.5N 126.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 107.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020  

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 082050
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
300 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020
 
Cristina is having some difficulty this afternoon in maintaining 
deep convection over its center.  Briefly, the low-level center 
became apparent via GOES-16 visible imagery just north of its main 
convective mass.  This exposed center was also confirmed by a 1756Z 
37 GHz color image from the GPM satellite.  

The more-easily-observed center allows for a confident assessment of 
its northwest motion at 11 kt.  Cristina should turn back to the 
west-northwest at about the same rate of forward speed tomorrow as a 
broad mid-level ridge builds north of the tropical storm.  That 
motion should continue for the next few days until Cristina turns to 
the west and accelerates slightly as its remnant low is steered by 
the near-surface trade winds.  The global and hurricane dynamical 
models are in close agreement on this forecast track, which is 
slightly north of the previous advisory due to the more northward 
initial position of Cristina.

The Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB not changing at 
18Z as well as the partially exposed center indicate that 
the earlier intensification has temporarily ceased. A 50-kt 
maximum wind remains the current intensity, though the ASCAT-A pass 
and SATCON satellite consensus suggests that this may be somewhat 
generous.  

Conditions are quite conducive for intensification in the short 
term, as SSTs are above 28C, mid-level humidity is near 75 percent, 
and deep tropospheric vertical shear is only 5-10 kt.  However, the 
SSTs are already cooling along the track of Cristina and it should 
pass over the 27C SST isotherm in about 36-48 hours.  After 48 
hours, the thermodynamic components quickly become hostile for 
the system. The statistical and mesoscale hurricane models have 
backed off some more and the peak intensity has been lowered 
slightly compared to the previous advisory.  It does appear that 
the opportunity for Cristina to rapidly intensify is diminishing.  
Cristina is expected to become a remnant low in four to five days, 
once deep convection ceases.

The aforementioned ASCAT-A scatterometer pass confirmed the rather 
small size - 60 nm maximum wind radii in the southeastern quadrant 
- of Cristina this afternoon.  Only a modest increase in size is 
expected over the next couple of days based on the RVCN consensus 
technique.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 16.0N 107.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 17.0N 109.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 18.0N 111.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 18.9N 113.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 19.8N 115.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 20.6N 118.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 21.1N 120.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 21.5N 126.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Landsea

Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 08 2020                                              

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 082045
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052020               
2100 UTC WED JUL 08 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 110W       34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X  41(41)  15(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   4( 4)   9(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  28(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
20N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  54(60)   8(68)   X(68)   X(68)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)   7(30)   X(30)   X(30)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   4(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  37(37)   3(40)   X(40)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   1(12)   X(12)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   2(17)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LANDSEA

Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics

Tropical Storm Cristina 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Jul 2020 20:53:14 GMT

Tropical Storm Cristina 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Jul 2020 21:24:53 GMT