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000 ABNT20 KNHC 230543 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy, located about 125 miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia, and has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette, located several hundred miles east-southeast of the Azores. The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta located just inland along the central Texas coast. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette (AT1/AL172020)
...PAULETTE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE SECOND TIME... As of 3:00 AM GMT Wed Sep 23 the center of Paulette was located near 34.8, -20.0 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Public Advisory Number 44
Issued at 300 AM GMT Wed Sep 23 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 230236 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 300 AM GMT Wed Sep 23 2020 ...PAULETTE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE SECOND TIME... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.8N 20.0W ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM ESE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette was located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 20.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast through midday Wednesday. A decrease in the forward motion along with turns to the southeast then south are expected late Wednesday through Thursday. A west-southwestward motion is forecast to begin by late this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast, and the post-tropical cyclone is expected to become a remnant low by Wednesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Paulette. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2. $$ Forecaster Brown
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 44
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 230236 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 20.0W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 20.0W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 20.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 35.2N 18.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.4N 17.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.1N 17.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 34.0N 19.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 33.0N 21.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 32.5N 26.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 20.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON PAULETTE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 44
Issued at 300 AM GMT Wed Sep 23 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 230236 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 300 AM GMT Wed Sep 23 2020 Paulette has been devoid of deep convection since early Tuesday, and the shallow convection mentioned in the previous advisory has also waned. Therefore, Paulette has again become a post-tropical cyclone, and this is the last NHC advisory on this system. Recent ASCAT data showed that the system still had a small area of 35 kt winds so the initial intensity is held at that value. The post-tropical cyclone will be moving over waters of 22-23 degrees Celsius and remain within an area of moderate vertical wind shear. This should result in gradual weakening over the next couple of days. The post-tropical cyclone continues to move eastward or 080/10 kt. This motion is forecast to continue through midday Wednesday, but a reduction is forward speed is expected by Wednesday night as the system becomes vertically shallow. The remnant low is expected to turn southward in 24-36 hours, with a faster west-southwestward motion anticipated later in the forecast period when it becomes embedded within the low-level northeasterly flow. This is the last NHC advisory on Paulette. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 34.8N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 23/1200Z 35.2N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/0000Z 35.4N 17.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1200Z 35.1N 17.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z 34.0N 19.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/1200Z 33.0N 21.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z 32.5N 26.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020
000
FONT11 KNHC 230236
PWSAT1
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2020 02:38:21 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2020 03:25:18 GMT
Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta Public Advisory Number 23
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY NEARING NOVA SCOTIA... ...CAUSING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 23 the center of Teddy was located near 44.5, -62.7 with movement NNE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Public Advisory Number 44
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 230840 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 ...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY NEARING NOVA SCOTIA... ...CAUSING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.5N 62.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM WSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia * North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia * Magdalen Islands Quebec * Prince Edward Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy was located near latitude 44.5 North, longitude 62.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia later today, and then near or over Newfoundland by tonight, and be east of Labrador on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so, but Teddy should remain a strong post-tropical cyclone while passing over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 520 miles (835 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 57 mph (94 km/h) were reported at Brier Island along the western coast of Nova Scotia within the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia warning area. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area this afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 44
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 230852 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO MEAT COVE * PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEAT COVE TO TIDNISH NOVA SCOTIA * NORTH OF DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE NOVA SCOTIA * MAGDALEN ISLANDS QUEBEC * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 62.7W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT.......240NE 120SE 120SW 200NW. 34 KT.......450NE 360SE 250SW 250NW. 12 FT SEAS..600NE 720SE 960SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 62.7W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.5N 63.3W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 47.5N 60.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 52.3N 56.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 57.0N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.5N 62.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 23/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 44
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 230918 CCA TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 44...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 Corrected status at 48H Teddy's deep convection has been diminishing, but based on buoy observations the cyclone still has a strong circulation with a central pressure in the 950's. Assuming a gradual spindown of the system since the earlier aircraft observations, the estimated maximum winds have dropped to just below hurricane strength. The system is expected to traverse Nova Scotia today as a strong extratropical cyclone, and move near Newfoundland by tonight. After passing east of Labrador on Thursday, the global models show Teddy merging with another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic. The estimated initial motion is north-northeastward or 025/20 kt. Teddy is embedded within a deep-layer trough that is located in the vicinity of Atlantic Canada. The post-tropical cyclone should move north-northeastward on the eastern side of the trough for the next 36-48 hours before it merges with the other low. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and also closely follows the corrected multi-model consensus, HCCA. Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells will linger over much of the southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone while it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada through tonight. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy is large destructive waves forecast along the southern coast of Nova Scotia today. 2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 44.5N 62.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 23/1800Z 47.5N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 24/0600Z 52.3N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/1800Z 57.0N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 25/0600Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020
000
FONT15 KNHC 230841
PWSAT5
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020
0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 44.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 4 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 60 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
BURGEO NFLD 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
BURGEO NFLD 50 26 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
PTX BASQUES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PTX BASQUES 50 71 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
PTX BASQUES 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
EDDY POINT NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
EDDY POINT NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SYDNEY NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SYDNEY NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SYDNEY NS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SABLE ISLAND 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SABLE ISLAND 50 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
HALIFAX NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HALIFAX NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
YARMOUTH NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
YARMOUTH NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MONCTON NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MONCTON NB 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ST JOHN NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ST JOHN NB 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
EASTPORT ME 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2020 08:54:30 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2020 09:25:25 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 230520 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Lowell, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Berg
Summary for Tropical Storm Lowell (EP2/EP172020)
...LOWELL'S WINDS STRENGTHEN... As of 11:00 PM HST Tue Sep 22 the center of Lowell was located near 19.8, -119.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Lowell Public Advisory Number 11
Issued at 1100 PM HST Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 230841 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020 1100 PM HST Tue Sep 22 2020 ...LOWELL'S WINDS STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 119.9W ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 119.9 West. Lowell is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A westward motion is expected to begin early Thursday and continue into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 11
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 230841 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020 0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 119.9W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 119.9W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 119.4W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.3N 121.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.7N 123.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.0N 124.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.1N 126.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.2N 129.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 21.2N 131.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 21.0N 135.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 21.1N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 119.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 11
Issued at 1100 PM HST Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 230841 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020 1100 PM HST Tue Sep 22 2020 Lowell's center is located near the northern edge of a band of deep convection which extends over the eastern and southern portion of the circulation due to moderate northwesterly shear in the mid-levels below the cirrus layer. That part of the circulation also happens to be where the tropical storm force winds are predominantly situated, and a recent ASCAT pass showed that the strongest winds have increased to near 45 kt. Lowell's circulation will be straddling a tight sea surface temperature gradient during the next few days, with the center moving over gradually cooler waters and toward a drier air mass. As a result, little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days, and some weakening should begin by day 3 when water temperatures fall below 25 degrees Celsius and moderate westerly or southwesterly shear sets in. The new NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous prediction and closely follows the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and IVCN intensity consensus. Lowell is likely to lose its deep convection and degenerate to a remnant low by day 4. Lowell has been moving steadily toward the west-northwest, or 295/10 kt, steered by a mid-tropospheric high pressure area centered just off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. The subtropical ridge is expected to become a little more established to the north of Lowell, and that should cause the storm to turn westward by 36 hours and continue at that heading through the end of the forecast period. There continues to be very little cross-track spread among the track guidance, and the most noteworthy differences are the forward speeds depicted by the models, bracketed by the speedy ECMWF and the more sluggish GFS and COAMPS-TC models. The models overall have continued to trend faster, and the new NHC track forecast is again pushed ahead of the previous prediction, lying close to the TVCE consensus and the HCCA aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 19.8N 119.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 20.3N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 20.7N 123.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 21.0N 124.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 21.1N 126.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 21.2N 129.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 21.2N 131.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 21.0N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0600Z 21.1N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Lowell Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 230841
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 120W 50 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
20N 125W 34 1 8( 9) 30(39) 4(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
20N 125W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
20N 125W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
25N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 23(27) 1(28) X(28)
20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Lowell Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2020 08:43:19 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2020 08:43:19 GMT