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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 082349 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure located about 60 miles east-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina, continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the adjacent Atlantic waters and portions of eastern North Carolina. The low is expected to move northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday, and then turn north-northeastward and move along the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next day or so. Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also possible along the North Carolina Outer Banks through Thursday, and along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Friday and Saturday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 09 Jul 2020 00:01:14 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 082334 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina, located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. A broad area of low pressure located about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become much less organized since yesterday. Development, if any, of this nearly stationary low will be slow to occur during the next two days before environmental conditions become unfavorable. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
...CRISTINA CONTINUING AS A TROPICAL STORM WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Jul 8 the center of Cristina was located near 16.0, -107.7 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 9
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 082044 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 ...CRISTINA CONTINUING AS A TROPICAL STORM WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 107.7W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 107.7 West. Cristina is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by tomorrow morning, and that motion is should continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, Cristina will remain well offshore the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Cristina is expected to become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea
Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 9
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 082044 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.7W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.7W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.9N 113.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.8N 115.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.6N 118.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.1N 120.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.5N 126.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 107.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 9
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 082050 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 Cristina is having some difficulty this afternoon in maintaining deep convection over its center. Briefly, the low-level center became apparent via GOES-16 visible imagery just north of its main convective mass. This exposed center was also confirmed by a 1756Z 37 GHz color image from the GPM satellite. The more-easily-observed center allows for a confident assessment of its northwest motion at 11 kt. Cristina should turn back to the west-northwest at about the same rate of forward speed tomorrow as a broad mid-level ridge builds north of the tropical storm. That motion should continue for the next few days until Cristina turns to the west and accelerates slightly as its remnant low is steered by the near-surface trade winds. The global and hurricane dynamical models are in close agreement on this forecast track, which is slightly north of the previous advisory due to the more northward initial position of Cristina. The Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB not changing at 18Z as well as the partially exposed center indicate that the earlier intensification has temporarily ceased. A 50-kt maximum wind remains the current intensity, though the ASCAT-A pass and SATCON satellite consensus suggests that this may be somewhat generous. Conditions are quite conducive for intensification in the short term, as SSTs are above 28C, mid-level humidity is near 75 percent, and deep tropospheric vertical shear is only 5-10 kt. However, the SSTs are already cooling along the track of Cristina and it should pass over the 27C SST isotherm in about 36-48 hours. After 48 hours, the thermodynamic components quickly become hostile for the system. The statistical and mesoscale hurricane models have backed off some more and the peak intensity has been lowered slightly compared to the previous advisory. It does appear that the opportunity for Cristina to rapidly intensify is diminishing. Cristina is expected to become a remnant low in four to five days, once deep convection ceases. The aforementioned ASCAT-A scatterometer pass confirmed the rather small size - 60 nm maximum wind radii in the southeastern quadrant - of Cristina this afternoon. Only a modest increase in size is expected over the next couple of days based on the RVCN consensus technique. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 16.0N 107.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 17.0N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 18.0N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 18.9N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 19.8N 115.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 20.6N 118.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 21.1N 120.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 21.5N 126.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 08 2020
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 082045
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
2100 UTC WED JUL 08 2020
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 41(41) 15(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 28(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 54(60) 8(68) X(68) X(68)
20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 7(30) X(30) X(30)
20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20)
20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 3(40) X(40)
20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12)
20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17)
20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Jul 2020 20:53:14 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Jul 2020 21:24:53 GMT