Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211742
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Peter, located more than 100 miles northeast of Puerto Rico, 
and on Tropical Storm Rose, located over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic Ocean.

A small but concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms is 
redeveloping along a tropical wave located a few hundred miles 
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are 
expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form by Thursday or Friday while the system 
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of 
Odette, is located about 700 miles west-northwest of the westernmost 
Azores. This low could acquire some subtropical characteristics over 
marginally warm waters during the next few days while it executes a 
small cyclonic loop over the north-central Atlantic Ocean. However, 
by the end of the week, this system is expected to encounter more 
hostile environmental conditions. Additional information on this 
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

Summary for Tropical Depression Peter (AT1/AL162021)

...PETER NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 21
 the center of Peter was located near 20.5, -65.0
 with movement WNW at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Peter Public Advisory Number 13

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 212046
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Peter Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021
 
...PETER NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 65.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Peter 
was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 65.0 West. The 
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). 
A turn to the north with a decrease in forward speed is expected 
beginning tomorrow.  On the forecast track, the center of Peter will 
remain well north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and 
should move well east of the southeastern Bahamas during the next 
few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Additional gradual weakening is forecast over the next 
several days, and Peter could degenerate into a remnant low by 
Thursday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical 
Depression Peter could produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 4 
inches, with storm total accumulations up to 6 inches, across 
portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including portions of the 
Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico and the northern portions of 
Hispaniola through Thursday morning. This rainfall may lead to areas 
of urban and small stream flooding.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Peter are affecting the northern Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico, and will continue spreading westward to
Hispaniola this evening and the Bahamas on Wednesday.  These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Advisory Number 13

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 212043
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162021
2100 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  65.0W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  65.0W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N  64.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.3N  66.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.3N  67.2W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.2N  67.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.2N  66.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.3N  66.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.7N  65.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.7N  63.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N  65.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Discussion Number 13

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 212050
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021
 
Like clockwork compared to prior days, deep convection has reignited 
closer to the increasingly elongated low-level circulation of Peter. 
Despite this increase in convective coverage, there does not appear 
to be much if any organization to this activity, with the 
upper-level cirrus taking on the appearance of a shapeless blob. In 
addition, an earlier 1157 UTC ASCAT-A pass received just after the 
prior advisory showed a peak wind retrieval of only 29 kt, well to 
the north of the low-level circulation. Furthermore, NOAA buoy 
41043, located north of the center of Peter, has been observing peak 
1-minute sustained winds between 20-25 kt over the last 6 hours. 
These lower winds, in combination with the lack of tropical storm 
force winds observed by the earlier Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance 
mission provide enough justification to downgrade Peter to a 
tropical depression this advisory with maximum sustained winds of 30 
kt.
 
The ongoing afternoon convection appears to have slowed down the 
forward motion of Peter a bit this afternoon, but the heading 
remains off to the west-northwest at 300/7 kt. Peter is still 
expected to gradually move to the west-northwest in the short term, 
followed by a somewhat sharp turn to the north and north-northeast 
as a weakness in the low-level flow develops from a deep-layer 
trough positioned near Bermuda. Similar to this morning, the 
guidance is in general agreement on this solution, with some cross- 
and along-track spread. The latest NHC track forecast is just a bit 
more right compared to the previous advisory, leaning a bit closer 
to the consensus aids which have also shifted a bit right this 
advisory. 
 
Peter's convective activity is unlikely to help improve the 
increasingly elongated vortex, mainly because the convection is 
likely to entrain dry mid-level air that often results in cool 
downdrafts disrupting the low-level cyclonic circulation more than 
helping. With deep-layer shear between 25-35 kt expected to persist 
for the next 36 hours in both the GFS- and ECMWF-SHIPS guidance, 
gradual weakening is likely to continue. By 36 hours, while 
intermittent bursts of deep convection will remain possible over 
warm sea-surface temperatures, both the GFS and ECMWF forecast 
simulated IR brightness temperatures show the convection becoming 
increasingly disorganized and unlikely to sustain Peter's status as 
a tropical cyclone. Thus, the cyclone is now forecast to become a 
remnant low in 36 hours. However, given that Peter's circulation is 
becoming increasingly elongated, it is also possible the system may 
open up into a trough even before this time period.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Depression 
Peter could lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through 
the evening across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, portions of the 
Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 20.5N  65.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 21.3N  66.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 22.3N  67.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 23.2N  67.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/1800Z 24.2N  66.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  24/0600Z 25.3N  66.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/1800Z 26.7N  65.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/1800Z 28.7N  63.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Depression Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021                                              

000
FONT11 KNHC 212046
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162021               
2100 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN

Tropical Depression Peter Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 Sep 2021 20:50:16 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Sep 2021 21:22:41 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Rose (AT2/AL172021)

...ROSE HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM....
 As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 21
 the center of Rose was located near 22.5, -37.7
 with movement NW at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Rose Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 212036
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021
 
...ROSE HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM....
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 37.7W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 37.7 West. Rose is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The storm
should gradually turn toward the north during the next couple of
days and move more to the northeast on Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Rose could decay into a tropical depression this evening and 
degenerate into a remnant low by Friday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory Number 11

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 212035
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172021
2100 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  37.7W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  37.7W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N  37.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.5N  38.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.8N  39.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.2N  40.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.5N  41.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 28.8N  40.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.8N  38.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 31.5N  33.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N  37.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 11

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 212036
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021

Shear continues to disrupt Rose's deep convection, with only a 
small cluster remaining in the eastern quadrant of the storm.  
Dvorak estimates support holding the intensity at 35 kt for one 
more advisory, and hopefully the evening scatterometer passes will 
get a good look at the cyclone's wind field.
 
Rose is moving more slowly to the northwest, now about 10 kt.  The 
storm should gradually turn northward during the next couple of 
days around the southwestern side of a subtropical ridge. Somewhat 
surprisingly, guidance has shifted westward during this time, 
perhaps due to a weaker Rose not feeling as much of the 
southwesterly flow aloft.  This westward shift in the track also 
puts Rose in a position to either get shunted east like the ECMWF 
solution, or uprooted more to the northeast at long range similar to 
the GFS.  Given the recent and large model changes since the last 
cycle, this forecast conservatively moves westward toward the model 
mean at most time ranges, not too far from a 50/50 blend of the 
GFS/ECMWF models (GFEX).

The cyclone has a difficult environment ahead, with persistent 
moderate westerly or northwesterly shear, plentiful dry air aloft 
and only marginally warm waters.  All of the guidance shows Rose 
decaying into a tropical depression fairly soon, and it could even 
wither into a remnant low tomorrow or Thursday in the harsh 
conditions.  However, the shear could let up just enough, along with 
some upper divergence from an upcoming trough interaction, to 
continue to produce deep convection for a few days.  This isn't an 
easy forecast because some of the guidance actually re-intensifies 
Rose due to the trough, while other guidance completely dissipates 
the tropical cyclone.  Given the considerable uncertainty, I've kept 
the previous forecast the same at long range until more clarity 
emerges in the model suite.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 22.5N  37.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 23.5N  38.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 24.8N  39.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 26.2N  40.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 27.5N  41.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  24/0600Z 28.8N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 29.8N  38.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/1800Z 31.5N  33.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 212036
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172021               
2100 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Storm Rose Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 Sep 2021 20:37:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Sep 2021 21:28:36 GMT

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211735
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 21 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located about 900 miles southwest of 
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to 
produce disorganized shower activity.  Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be somewhat conducive for development, and a short-lived 
tropical cyclone could form in 2 or 3 days while the low moves 
generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  This system is forecast 
to move over cooler waters and into a more stable environment by 
the weekend, which should inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 21 Sep 2021 21:28:47 GMT