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000 ABPZ20 KNHC 091502 TWOEP Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM PDT Sun May 9 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Andres located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2021. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Andres are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Andres are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres (EP1/EP012021)
...ANDRES BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON ANDRES... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue May 11 the center of Andres was located near 15.8, -111.4 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 111436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 900 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 ...ANDRES BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON ANDRES... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 111.4W ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 111.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate on Wednesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Andres. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 111435 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 1500 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 111.4W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 111.4W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.1W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.8N 112.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.7N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 111.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ANDRES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 111438 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 900 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 Hostile environmental conditions have reduced Andres to an exposed, low-level cloud swirl. Although a small burst of convection was noted earlier this morning over 100 n mi northeast of the center, Andres has been without organized deep convection near its center for over 12 hours. Therefore, the cyclone has become a remnant low, and this will be the final NHC advisory on Andres. The remnant low is moving just south of due west and will continue moving westward within the low-level trade wind flow until it dissipates on Wednesday night. Overnight scatterometer data indicated that 20-25 kt winds were confined to the northwest quadrant of Andres, between the cyclone and a subtropical ridge to its northwest. Continued weakening is expected as the remnant low moves into a drier, more stable environment with increasing wind shear and decreasing sea-surface temperatures. This is the last NHC advisory on Andres. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 15.8N 111.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 12/0000Z 15.8N 112.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/1200Z 15.7N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 111436
PWSEP1
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021
1500 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 May 2021 14:37:25 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 May 2021 15:22:38 GMT