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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230543
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy, located about 125 miles south 
of Halifax, Nova Scotia, and has issued the last advisory on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette, located several hundred miles 
east-southeast of the Azores.  The Weather Prediction Center is 
issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta located just 
inland along the central Texas coast. 

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. 

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette (AT1/AL172020)

...PAULETTE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE SECOND TIME...
 As of 3:00 AM GMT Wed Sep 23
 the center of Paulette was located near 34.8, -20.0
 with movement E at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Public Advisory Number 44

Issued at 300 AM GMT Wed Sep 23 2020  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 230236
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Advisory Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
300 AM GMT Wed Sep 23 2020
 
...PAULETTE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE SECOND TIME...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 20.0W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM ESE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Paulette was located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 20.0 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19
km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast through 
midday Wednesday. A decrease in the forward motion along with turns 
to the southeast then south are expected late Wednesday through 
Thursday. A west-southwestward motion is forecast to begin by late 
this week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast, and the post-tropical cyclone is 
expected to become a remnant low by Wednesday morning.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Paulette.  Additional information on this system can be 
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO 
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 44

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 230236
TCMAT1
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172020
0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N  20.0W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  80 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  60SE 120SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N  20.0W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N  20.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 35.2N  18.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.4N  17.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.1N  17.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 34.0N  19.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 33.0N  21.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 32.5N  26.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N  20.0W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON PAULETTE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE 
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO 
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 44

Issued at 300 AM GMT Wed Sep 23 2020  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 230236
TCDAT1
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Discussion Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
300 AM GMT Wed Sep 23 2020
 
Paulette has been devoid of deep convection since early Tuesday,
and the shallow convection mentioned in the previous advisory has
also waned.  Therefore, Paulette has again become a post-tropical
cyclone, and this is the last NHC advisory on this system.  Recent 
ASCAT data showed that the system still had a small area of 35 kt 
winds so the initial intensity is held at that value.  The 
post-tropical cyclone will be moving over waters of 22-23 degrees 
Celsius and remain within an area of moderate vertical wind 
shear.  This should result in gradual weakening over the next 
couple of days.
 
The post-tropical cyclone continues to move eastward or 080/10 kt.
This motion is forecast to continue through midday Wednesday, but a
reduction is forward speed is expected by Wednesday night as the 
system becomes vertically shallow.  The remnant low is expected to 
turn southward in 24-36 hours, with a faster west-southwestward 
motion anticipated later in the forecast period when it becomes 
embedded within the low-level northeasterly flow.
 
This is the last NHC advisory on Paulette.  Additional information
on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo
France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 34.8N  20.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  23/1200Z 35.2N  18.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  24/0000Z 35.4N  17.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/1200Z 35.1N  17.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/0000Z 34.0N  19.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  25/1200Z 33.0N  21.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0000Z 32.5N  26.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020                                              

000
FONT11 KNHC 230236
PWSAT1
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  44  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172020               
0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Graphics

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2020 02:38:21 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2020 03:25:18 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta Public Advisory Number 23

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy (AT5/AL202020)

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY NEARING NOVA SCOTIA... ...CAUSING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 23
 the center of Teddy was located near 44.5, -62.7
 with movement NNE at 23 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 957 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Public Advisory Number 44

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 230840
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Advisory Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020
 
...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY NEARING NOVA SCOTIA...
...CAUSING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.5N 62.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM WSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Prince Edward Island
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 44.5 North, longitude 62.7 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 23
mph (37 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is 
expected for the next day or so.  On the forecast track, the center 
will move over eastern Nova Scotia later today, and then near or 
over Newfoundland by tonight, and be east of Labrador on Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so, 
but Teddy should remain a strong post-tropical cyclone while 
passing over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 520 miles (835 km)
from the center.  A sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust 
to 57 mph (94 km/h) were reported at Brier Island along the western 
coast of Nova Scotia within the past few hours.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia.  Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia
warning area.  Tropical storm conditions could begin in the
watch areas later this morning.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area this afternoon.
 
RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 44

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 230852
TCMAT5
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202020
0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO MEAT COVE
* PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEAT COVE TO TIDNISH NOVA SCOTIA
* NORTH OF DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE NOVA SCOTIA
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS QUEBEC
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TEDDY.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N  62.7W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT  20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT.......240NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
34 KT.......450NE 360SE 250SW 250NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 720SE 960SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N  62.7W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.5N  63.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 47.5N  60.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 200SW 200NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 52.3N  56.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 57.0N  53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.5N  62.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 23/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 44

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 230918 CCA
TCDAT5
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number  44...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

Corrected status at 48H
 
Teddy's deep convection has been diminishing, but based on buoy
observations the cyclone still has a strong circulation with a 
central pressure in the 950's.  Assuming a gradual spindown of the 
system since the earlier aircraft observations, the estimated 
maximum winds have dropped to just below hurricane strength.  The 
system is expected to traverse Nova Scotia today as a strong 
extratropical cyclone, and move near Newfoundland by tonight.  After 
passing east of Labrador on Thursday, the global models show Teddy 
merging with another large extratropical low over the north 
Atlantic.

The estimated initial motion is north-northeastward or 025/20 kt.  
Teddy is embedded within a deep-layer trough that is located in the 
vicinity of Atlantic Canada.  The post-tropical cyclone should move 
north-northeastward on the eastern side of the trough for the next 
36-48 hours before it merges with the other low.  The official 
track forecast is very similar to the previous one and also closely 
follows the corrected multi-model consensus, HCCA.

Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells 
will linger over much of the southwestern Atlantic basin for the 
next few days.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Teddy is expected remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone 
while it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada through 
tonight. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy is large 
destructive waves forecast along the southern coast of Nova Scotia 
today.
 
2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
 
3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions
of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen
Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected
through Thursday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0900Z 44.5N  62.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  23/1800Z 47.5N  60.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  24/0600Z 52.3N  56.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/1800Z 57.0N  53.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  25/0600Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020                                              

000
FONT15 KNHC 230841
PWSAT5
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  44     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202020               
0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 44.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  4  10(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34 60   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34 90   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
BURGEO NFLD    50 26   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
PTX BASQUES    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PTX BASQUES    50 71   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
PTX BASQUES    64  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
EDDY POINT NS  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SYDNEY NS      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SYDNEY NS      50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SYDNEY NS      64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SABLE ISLAND   50 92   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 
HALIFAX NS     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
HALIFAX NS     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
YARMOUTH NS    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
MONCTON NB     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MONCTON NB     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ST JOHN NB     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ST JOHN NB     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
EASTPORT ME    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Graphics

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2020 08:54:30 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2020 09:25:25 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230520
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Lowell, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Summary for Tropical Storm Lowell (EP2/EP172020)

...LOWELL'S WINDS STRENGTHEN...
 As of 11:00 PM HST Tue Sep 22
 the center of Lowell was located near 19.8, -119.9
 with movement WNW at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Lowell Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 1100 PM HST Tue Sep 22 2020  

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230841
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172020
1100 PM HST Tue Sep 22 2020
 
...LOWELL'S WINDS STRENGTHEN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 119.9W
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 119.9 West.  Lowell is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today.  A westward motion is 
expected to begin early Thursday and continue into the weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with 
higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the 
next few days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 11

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020  

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 230841
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172020
0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 119.9W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE  80SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 119.9W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 119.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.3N 121.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.7N 123.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.0N 124.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.1N 126.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.2N 129.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 21.2N 131.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 21.0N 135.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 21.1N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 119.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 11

Issued at 1100 PM HST Tue Sep 22 2020  

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230841
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172020
1100 PM HST Tue Sep 22 2020
 
Lowell's center is located near the northern edge of a band of deep 
convection which extends over the eastern and southern portion of 
the circulation due to moderate northwesterly shear in the 
mid-levels below the cirrus layer.  That part of the circulation 
also happens to be where the tropical storm force winds are 
predominantly situated, and a recent ASCAT pass showed that the 
strongest winds have increased to near 45 kt.  Lowell's circulation 
will be straddling a tight sea surface temperature gradient during 
the next few days, with the center moving over gradually cooler 
waters and toward a drier air mass.  As a result, little change in 
strength is expected during the next couple of days, and some 
weakening should begin by day 3 when water temperatures fall below 
25 degrees Celsius and moderate westerly or southwesterly shear 
sets in.  The new NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of 
the previous prediction and closely follows the HCCA, Florida State 
Superensemble, and IVCN intensity consensus.  Lowell is likely to 
lose its deep convection and degenerate to a remnant low by day 4.
 
Lowell has been moving steadily toward the west-northwest, or 
295/10 kt, steered by a mid-tropospheric high pressure area 
centered just off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula.  
The subtropical ridge is expected to become a little more 
established to the north of Lowell, and that should cause the storm 
to turn westward by 36 hours and continue at that heading through 
the end of the forecast period.  There continues to be very little 
cross-track spread among the track guidance, and the most 
noteworthy differences are the forward speeds depicted by the 
models, bracketed by the speedy ECMWF and the more sluggish GFS and 
COAMPS-TC models.  The models overall have continued to trend 
faster, and the new NHC track forecast is again pushed ahead of the 
previous prediction, lying close to the TVCE consensus and the HCCA 
aid.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0900Z 19.8N 119.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 20.3N 121.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 20.7N 123.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 21.0N 124.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 21.1N 126.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  25/1800Z 21.2N 129.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 21.2N 131.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 21.0N 135.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/0600Z 21.1N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Lowell Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020                                              

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 230841
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172020               
0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 120W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
20N 120W       50 13   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
20N 125W       34  1   8( 9)  30(39)   4(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
25N 125W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  23(27)   1(28)   X(28)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   1(12)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Lowell Graphics

Tropical Storm Lowell 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2020 08:43:19 GMT

Tropical Storm Lowell 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2020 08:43:19 GMT